Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 8, 2015
Man United 1–0 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Tottenham 1–0, but the replays call it even: Man United win 3 of 10, Tottenham 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.6). An own goal helped Man United.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.53 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Man United lucky · −47 Tottenham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 3, 4 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 MUN 1 TOT 0
- 2 MUN 1 TOT 0
- 3 MUN 3 TOT 1
- 4 MUN 2 TOT 2
- 5 MUN 2 TOT 2
- 6 MUN 0 TOT 0
- 7 MUN 2 TOT 2
- 8 MUN 0 TOT 2
- 9 MUN 0 TOT 1
- 10 MUN 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 33%, 40% end level, Tottenham win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Man United by 2 | 7.9% |
| Man United by 1 | 23.1% |
| Draw | 40.1% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 20.4% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 5.5% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 9 | 0 | 0.53 | −0.53 |
 Tottenham | 9 | 0 | 0.58 | −0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% MUN |
| 2 | 11' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MUN |
| 3 | 17' | Kyle Walker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% MUN |
| 4 | 21' | Own goal by nan, for Man UnitedOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +23% MUN |
| 5 | 27' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +1% TOT |
| 6 | 83' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% MUN |
| 7 | 87' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MUN |
| 8 | 88' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 27% · draw 42% · Tottenham 31%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 33% · draw 40% · Tottenham 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Leicester 4–2 Sunderland Aug 8, 2015 · replay 85% for Leicester
- Everton 2–2 Watford Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa Aug 8, 2015 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Newcastle 2–2 Southampton Aug 9, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Stoke 0–1 Liverpool Aug 9, 2015 · replay 44% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–2 West Ham Aug 9, 2015 · replay 37% for West Ham
- West Brom 0–3 Man City Aug 10, 2015 · replay 88% for Man City