Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 8, 2015
Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Norwich 3–1, and the replays lean Crystal Palace’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Norwich, 2 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.41 |
 Crystal Palace | 3 | 1.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Crystal Palace lucky · −32 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 2, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 6.
- 1 NOR 2 CRY 1
- 2 NOR 3 CRY 1
- 3 NOR 0 CRY 0
- 4 NOR 0 CRY 0
- 5 NOR 0 CRY 4
- 6 NOR 0 CRY 3
- 7 NOR 1 CRY 3
- 8 NOR 1 CRY 3
- 9 NOR 0 CRY 1
- 10 NOR 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 22%, 21% end level, Crystal Palace win 57%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Norwich by 2 | 6.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 13.1% |
| Draw | 20.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 22.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 17.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 16.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 17 | 1 | 1.41 | −0.41 |
 Crystal Palace | 11 | 3 | 1.80 | +1.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
| 29' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 37' | Wilfried Zaha scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 48' | Damien Delaney scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 68' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 93' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +14% CRY |
| 2 | 29' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +17% NOR |
| 3 | 37' | The game turned hereWilfried Zaha scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +27% CRY |
| 4 | 48' | Damien Delaney scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +12% CRY |
| 5 | 50' | Bradley Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +4% CRY |
| 6 | 68' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +12% NOR |
| 7 | 86' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CRY |
| 8 | 90' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 10% · draw 17% · Crystal Palace 73%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 22% · draw 21% · Crystal Palace 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Crystal Palace
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