Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 10, 2015
West Brom 0–3 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat West Brom 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.67 |
 Manchester City | 3 | 1.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Man City about even · −12 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 1, 1 ends level, Man City win 8.
- 1 WBA 2 MCI 1
- 2 WBA 2 MCI 2
- 3 WBA 0 MCI 5
- 4 WBA 0 MCI 3
- 5 WBA 0 MCI 3
- 6 WBA 0 MCI 2
- 7 WBA 0 MCI 2
- 8 WBA 1 MCI 2
- 9 WBA 1 MCI 2
- 10 WBA 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 5%, 13% end level, Man City win 82%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 1.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 3.8% |
| Draw | 13.2% |
| Man City by 1 | 22.4% |
| Man City by 2 | 24.3% |
| Man City by 3+ | 34.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 9 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
 Man City | 20 | 3 | 1.76 | +1.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | David Josué Jiménez Silva scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 23' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 40' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 58' | Vincent Kompany scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WBA |
| 2 | 8' | The game turned hereGnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chanceDavid Josué Jiménez Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +21% MCI |
| 3 | 10' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% WBA |
| 4 | 19' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% WBA |
| 5 | 23' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +17% MCI |
| 6 | 40' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +2% WBA |
| 7 | 42' | Aleksandar Kolarov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% WBA |
| 8 | 58' | Vincent Kompany scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 3% · draw 9% · Man City 88%
- Final margin
- Man City by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 5% · draw 13% · Man City 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Man City
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
- Leicester 4–2 Sunderland Aug 8, 2015 · replay 85% for Leicester
- Everton 2–2 Watford Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa Aug 8, 2015 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Newcastle 2–2 Southampton Aug 9, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Stoke 0–1 Liverpool Aug 9, 2015 · replay 44% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–2 West Ham Aug 9, 2015 · replay 37% for West Ham