Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 8, 2015
Leicester 4–2 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Sunderland 4–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 4 | 2.26 |
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Leicester about even · −15 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 8, 1 ends level, Sunderland win 1.
- 1 LEI 1 SUN 0
- 2 LEI 3 SUN 2
- 3 LEI 2 SUN 0
- 4 LEI 5 SUN 3
- 5 LEI 4 SUN 1
- 6 LEI 4 SUN 0
- 7 LEI 5 SUN 1
- 8 LEI 7 SUN 1
- 9 LEI 2 SUN 2
- 10 LEI 2 SUN 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 80%, 11% end level, Sunderland win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 42.3% |
| Leicester by 2 | 20.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 17.3% |
| Draw | 11.1% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 6.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.9% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 19 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.26 | +1.74 |
 Sunderland | 9 | 2 | 1.37 | +0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 17' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 24' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 59' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 65' | Marc Albrighton scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 70' | Steven Fletcher scored from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% LEI |
| 2 | 5' | Younes Kaboul didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LEI |
| 3 | 5' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LEI |
| 4 | 10' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +22% LEI |
| 5 | 12' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% SUN |
| 6 | 17' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +11% LEI |
| 7 | 59' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +1% SUN |
| 8 | 65' | Marc Albrighton scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 79% · draw 14% · Sunderland 7%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 80% · draw 11% · Sunderland 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Sunderland
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
- Everton 2–2 Watford Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa Aug 8, 2015 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Newcastle 2–2 Southampton Aug 9, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Stoke 0–1 Liverpool Aug 9, 2015 · replay 44% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–2 West Ham Aug 9, 2015 · replay 37% for West Ham
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