Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 9, 2015
Arsenal 0–2 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Arsenal 2–0, but the replays lean toward Arsenal: 5 wins in 10 to West Ham’s 2, 3 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 0 | 1.29 |
 West Ham United | 2 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +63 West Ham very lucky · −63 Arsenal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 5, 3 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 ARS 1 WHU 0
- 2 ARS 2 WHU 1
- 3 ARS 2 WHU 1
- 4 ARS 3 WHU 1
- 5 ARS 3 WHU 0
- 6 ARS 0 WHU 0
- 7 ARS 1 WHU 1
- 8 ARS 0 WHU 0
- 9 ARS 0 WHU 1
- 10 ARS 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 47%, 33% end level, West Ham win 21%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 13.8% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 27.0% |
| Draw | 32.6% |
| West Ham by 1 | 16.3% |
| West Ham by 2 | 3.5% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 23 | 0 | 1.29 | −1.29 |
 West Ham | 8 | 2 | 0.43 | +1.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 56' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WHU |
| 2 | 32' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% WHU |
| 3 | 35' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ARS |
| 4 | 42' | The game turned hereCheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +26% WHU |
| 5 | 44' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WHU |
| 6 | 54' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WHU |
| 7 | 55' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WHU |
| 8 | 56' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +15% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 30% · draw 29% · West Ham 40%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 47% · draw 33% · West Ham 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
- Leicester 4–2 Sunderland Aug 8, 2015 · replay 85% for Leicester
- Everton 2–2 Watford Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa Aug 8, 2015 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Newcastle 2–2 Southampton Aug 9, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Stoke 0–1 Liverpool Aug 9, 2015 · replay 44% for Liverpool
- West Brom 0–3 Man City Aug 10, 2015 · replay 88% for Man City