Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 8, 2015
Chelsea 2–2 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Swansea drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 1 of 10, Swansea 7, and 2 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.5. An own goal helped Chelsea.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 2 | 0.49 |
 Swansea City | 2 | 2.47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Chelsea lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 1, 2 end level, Swansea win 7.
- 1 CHE 2 SWA 1
- 2 CHE 1 SWA 1
- 3 CHE 2 SWA 2
- 4 CHE 0 SWA 4
- 5 CHE 0 SWA 3
- 6 CHE 1 SWA 4
- 7 CHE 1 SWA 3
- 8 CHE 1 SWA 3
- 9 CHE 0 SWA 1
- 10 CHE 1 SWA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 8%, 17% end level, Swansea win 75%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 1.3% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 6.4% |
| Draw | 16.6% |
| Swansea by 1 | 25.0% |
| Swansea by 2 | 22.2% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 28.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 10 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
 Swansea | 16 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.47 | −0.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 28' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 54' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +24% CHE |
| 2 | 28' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +7% CHE |
| 3 | 28' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +18% SWA |
| 4 | 29' | Own goal by nan, for ChelseaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +25% CHE |
| 5 | 47' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% CHE |
| 6 | 54' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% SWA |
| 7 | 65' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% SWA |
| 8 | 74' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 4% · draw 10% · Swansea 86%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 8% · draw 17% · Swansea 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Chelsea · Swansea
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