Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Arsenal 2–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Stoke 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 10 of 10. Arsenal made the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 | 3.70 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Arsenal about even · −2 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 10, 0 end level, Stoke win 0.
- 1 ARS 2 STK 1
- 2 ARS 3 STK 1
- 3 ARS 3 STK 0
- 4 ARS 4 STK 1
- 5 ARS 4 STK 0
- 6 ARS 4 STK 0
- 7 ARS 5 STK 0
- 8 ARS 5 STK 0
- 9 ARS 6 STK 0
- 10 ARS 8 STK 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 96%, 3% end level, Stoke win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 75.0% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 13.6% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 7.6% |
| Draw | 3.1% |
| Stoke by 1 | 0.7% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.0% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 30 | 2 | 3.70 | −1.70 |
 Stoke | 9 | 0 | 0.28 | −0.28 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
| 30' | Theo Walcott scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 69' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 75' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
| 84' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% STK |
| 2 | 2' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +11% STK |
| 3 | 6' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% STK |
| 4 | 7' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% STK |
| 5 | 30' | Theo Walcott scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +18% ARS |
| 6 | 69' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +3% STK |
| 7 | 75' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +4% STK |
| 8 | 84' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 99% · draw 1% · Stoke 0%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 96% · draw 3% · Stoke 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Arsenal · Stoke
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham