Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Man United 3–1 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Liverpool 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 | 1.48 |
 Liverpool | 1 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Man United about even · −20 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 7, 2 end level, Liverpool win 1.
- 1 MUN 1 LIV 0
- 2 MUN 1 LIV 0
- 3 MUN 1 LIV 0
- 4 MUN 2 LIV 0
- 5 MUN 2 LIV 0
- 6 MUN 3 LIV 0
- 7 MUN 5 LIV 1
- 8 MUN 1 LIV 1
- 9 MUN 0 LIV 0
- 10 MUN 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 70%, 21% end level, Liverpool win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 20.8% |
| Man United by 2 | 21.0% |
| Man United by 1 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 20.6% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 7.0% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 1.9% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 9 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.48 | +1.52 |
 Liverpool | 7 | 1 | 0.62 | +0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Daley Blind scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 69' | Ander Herrera Agüera scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 83' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 85' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% LIV |
| 2 | 45' | Ashley Young didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% LIV |
| 3 | 48' | Daley Blind scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +28% MUN |
| 4 | 56' | Daniel William John Ings didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% MUN |
| 5 | 63' | Daniel William John Ings didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +9% MUN |
| 6 | 69' | Ander Herrera Agüera scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% MUN |
| 7 | 83' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LIV |
| 8 | 85' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +1% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 87% · draw 9% · Liverpool 3%
- Final margin
- Man United by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 70% · draw 21% · Liverpool 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 2–0 Stoke Sep 12, 2015 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham