Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Crystal Palace 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 3.6 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.54 |
 Manchester City | 1 | 3.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Man City about even · −5 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 0, 1 ends level, Man City win 9.
- 1 CRY 0 MCI 0
- 2 CRY 0 MCI 7
- 3 CRY 0 MCI 5
- 4 CRY 0 MCI 5
- 5 CRY 0 MCI 4
- 6 CRY 0 MCI 3
- 7 CRY 0 MCI 3
- 8 CRY 1 MCI 3
- 9 CRY 2 MCI 4
- 10 CRY 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 3%, 6% end level, Man City win 92%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 0.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 1.8% |
| Draw | 5.8% |
| Man City by 1 | 12.0% |
| Man City by 2 | 18.7% |
| Man City by 3+ | 61.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 10 | 0 | 0.54 | −0.54 |
 Man City | 21 | 1 | 3.56 | −2.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shot | 0.95 |
| 89' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.66 |
| 94' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shot | 0.68 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Samir Nasri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% CRY |
| 2 | 31' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% CRY |
| 3 | 31' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% CRY |
| 4 | 50' | Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 95% chance | +32% CRY |
| 5 | 55' | Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% CRY |
| 6 | 69' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% MCI |
| 7 | 88' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% MCI |
| 8 | 89' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +17% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 1% · draw 3% · Man City 96%
- Final margin
- Man City by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 3% · draw 6% · Man City 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 2–0 Stoke Sep 12, 2015 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham