Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Bournemouth 3–1, and the replays lean Norwich’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Bournemouth, 2 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 3 | 1.32 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Norwich lucky · −28 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 6, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 2.
- 1 NOR 2 BOU 1
- 2 NOR 2 BOU 1
- 3 NOR 1 BOU 0
- 4 NOR 2 BOU 0
- 5 NOR 3 BOU 0
- 6 NOR 3 BOU 0
- 7 NOR 1 BOU 1
- 8 NOR 1 BOU 1
- 9 NOR 0 BOU 2
- 10 NOR 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 59%, 25% end level, Bournemouth win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Norwich by 2 | 17.8% |
| Norwich by 1 | 27.4% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 11.6% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 3.7% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 12 | 3 | 1.32 | +1.68 |
 Bournemouth | 8 | 1 | 0.78 | +0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Cameron Jerome scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 45' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 51' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 66' | Matt Jarvis scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 80' | Steve Cook scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% NOR |
| 2 | 11' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% BOU |
| 3 | 30' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% BOU |
| 4 | 34' | Cameron Jerome scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +15% NOR |
| 5 | 45' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +11% NOR |
| 6 | 46' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NOR |
| 7 | 51' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +10% NOR |
| 8 | 66' | Matt Jarvis scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +1% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 79% · draw 16% · Bournemouth 6%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 59% · draw 25% · Bournemouth 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Bournemouth
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
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- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
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- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
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