Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
West Brom 0–0 Southampton: who deserved to win?
West Brom and Southampton drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Brom win 2 of 10, Southampton 5, and 3 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.60 |
 Southampton | 0 | 1.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 West Brom about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 2, 3 end level, Southampton win 5.
- 1 WBA 1 SOU 0
- 2 WBA 3 SOU 1
- 3 WBA 1 SOU 1
- 4 WBA 0 SOU 0
- 5 WBA 0 SOU 0
- 6 WBA 1 SOU 4
- 7 WBA 0 SOU 2
- 8 WBA 1 SOU 2
- 9 WBA 1 SOU 2
- 10 WBA 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 21%, 31% end level, Southampton win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 1.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 4.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 15.5% |
| Draw | 30.9% |
| Southampton by 1 | 27.2% |
| Southampton by 2 | 14.0% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 8 | 0 | 0.60 | −0.60 |
 Southampton | 16 | 0 | 1.09 | −1.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% WBA |
| 2 | 25' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SOU |
| 3 | 36' | Jay Rodriguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% WBA |
| 4 | 46' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% WBA |
| 5 | 53' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% SOU |
| 6 | 70' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WBA |
| 7 | 73' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% WBA |
| 8 | 90' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 20% · draw 33% · Southampton 47%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 21% · draw 31% · Southampton 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Southampton
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- Arsenal 2–0 Stoke Sep 12, 2015 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham