Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Everton 3–1 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Chelsea 3–1, and the replays lean Everton’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Chelsea, 3 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Everton lucky · −32 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 5, 3 end level, Chelsea win 2.
- 1 EVE 2 CHE 1
- 2 EVE 2 CHE 1
- 3 EVE 1 CHE 0
- 4 EVE 2 CHE 0
- 5 EVE 3 CHE 0
- 6 EVE 1 CHE 1
- 7 EVE 0 CHE 0
- 8 EVE 0 CHE 0
- 9 EVE 0 CHE 2
- 10 EVE 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 54%, 28% end level, Chelsea win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 9.8% |
| Everton by 2 | 17.8% |
| Everton by 1 | 26.2% |
| Draw | 28.1% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 13.2% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 3.9% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 14 | 3 | 1.21 | +1.79 |
 Chelsea | 15 | 1 | 0.80 | +0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Steven Naismith scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 21' | Steven Naismith scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 35' | Nemanja Matić scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 81' | Steven Naismith scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Steven Naismith scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +12% EVE |
| 2 | 18' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% CHE |
| 3 | 21' | Steven Naismith scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +12% EVE |
| 4 | 35' | Nemanja Matić scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +12% CHE |
| 5 | 38' | John Terry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EVE |
| 6 | 42' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% EVE |
| 7 | 50' | Kurt Happy Zouma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EVE |
| 8 | 81' | Steven Naismith scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 75% · draw 16% · Chelsea 9%
- Final margin
- Everton by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 54% · draw 28% · Chelsea 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 2–0 Stoke Sep 12, 2015 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham