Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Watford 1–0 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Swansea 1–0, and the replays lean Watford’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Swansea, 3 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 1 | 1.15 |
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Watford lucky · −38 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 5, 3 end level, Swansea win 2.
- 1 WAT 1 SWA 0
- 2 WAT 2 SWA 1
- 3 WAT 2 SWA 1
- 4 WAT 2 SWA 0
- 5 WAT 4 SWA 1
- 6 WAT 0 SWA 0
- 7 WAT 0 SWA 0
- 8 WAT 0 SWA 0
- 9 WAT 1 SWA 3
- 10 WAT 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 48%, 28% end level, Swansea win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 8.0% |
| Watford by 2 | 13.7% |
| Watford by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 28.1% |
| Swansea by 1 | 16.7% |
| Swansea by 2 | 5.5% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 17 | 1 | 1.15 | −0.15 |
 Swansea | 8 | 0 | 0.82 | −0.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 58' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.27 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WAT |
| 2 | 38' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +15% WAT |
| 3 | 56' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SWA |
| 4 | 57' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SWA |
| 5 | 58' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +24% WAT |
| 6 | 79' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% WAT |
| 7 | 92' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% WAT |
| 8 | 94' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 44% · draw 31% · Swansea 25%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 48% · draw 28% · Swansea 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Swansea
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