Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 13, 2015
Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Aston Villa 3–2, but the replays call it even: Leicester win 4 of 10, Aston Villa 3, 3 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 3 | 1.50 |
 Aston Villa | 2 | 1.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Leicester lucky · −49 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.
- 1 LEI 2 AVL 1
- 2 LEI 3 AVL 2
- 3 LEI 2 AVL 0
- 4 LEI 3 AVL 0
- 5 LEI 0 AVL 0
- 6 LEI 0 AVL 0
- 7 LEI 0 AVL 0
- 8 LEI 0 AVL 2
- 9 LEI 3 AVL 4
- 10 LEI 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 38%, 27% end level, Aston Villa win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 6.3% |
| Leicester by 2 | 11.2% |
| Leicester by 1 | 20.0% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 20.8% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 9.9% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 21 | 3 | 1.50 | +1.50 |
 Aston Villa | 11 | 2 | 1.22 | +0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Scott Sinclair didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 38' | Jack Grealish scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 62' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 71' | Ritchie De Laet scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 81' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 88' | Nathan Dyer scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Scott Sinclair didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +14% LEI |
| 2 | 38' | Carlos Alberto Sánchez Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% LEI |
| 3 | 38' | Jack Grealish scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +29% AVL |
| 4 | 62' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +13% AVL |
| 5 | 71' | Ritchie De Laet scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +10% LEI |
| 6 | 75' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% AVL |
| 7 | 81' | The game turned hereJamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +33% LEI |
| 8 | 88' | Nathan Dyer scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +37% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 43% · draw 26% · Aston Villa 30%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 38% · draw 27% · Aston Villa 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Aston Villa
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
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- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham