Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 13, 2015
Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Sunderland 1–0, and the replays lean Tottenham’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sunderland, 2 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 1.07 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Tottenham lucky · −35 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 2, 2 end level, Tottenham win 6.
- 1 SUN 2 TOT 1
- 2 SUN 2 TOT 0
- 3 SUN 1 TOT 1
- 4 SUN 1 TOT 1
- 5 SUN 0 TOT 4
- 6 SUN 0 TOT 2
- 7 SUN 1 TOT 3
- 8 SUN 2 TOT 3
- 9 SUN 0 TOT 1
- 10 SUN 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 23%, 23% end level, Tottenham win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 2.2% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 6.6% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 14.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 24.2% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 16.1% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 13.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 13 | 0 | 1.07 | −1.07 |
 Tottenham | 17 | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 81' | Ryan Mason scored from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +12% TOT |
| 2 | 66' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SUN |
| 3 | 75' | Nacer Chadli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SUN |
| 4 | 76' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% SUN |
| 5 | 79' | Ryan Mason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SUN |
| 6 | 81' | The game turned hereRyan Mason scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +23% TOT |
| 7 | 83' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% TOT |
| 8 | 93' | Jeremain Lens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 24% · draw 26% · Tottenham 50%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 23% · draw 23% · Tottenham 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 2–0 Stoke Sep 12, 2015 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- West Ham 2–0 Newcastle Sep 14, 2015 · replay 88% for West Ham