Matchday 5 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 14, 2015
West Ham 2–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Newcastle 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Ham win 8 of 10, 1 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 2.09 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.81 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 West Ham about even · −12 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 8, 1 ends level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 WHU 2 NEW 1
- 2 WHU 1 NEW 0
- 3 WHU 3 NEW 1
- 4 WHU 3 NEW 1
- 5 WHU 4 NEW 1
- 6 WHU 4 NEW 1
- 7 WHU 4 NEW 0
- 8 WHU 5 NEW 0
- 9 WHU 1 NEW 1
- 10 WHU 1 NEW 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 82%, 12% end level, Newcastle win 6%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 39.8% |
| West Ham by 2 | 22.5% |
| West Ham by 1 | 20.0% |
| Draw | 11.6% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 4.6% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 1.3% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 17 | 2 | 2.09 | −0.09 |
 Newcastle | 14 | 0 | 0.81 | −0.81 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 47' | Victor Moses didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 47' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 84' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shot | 0.60 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +21% WHU |
| 2 | 13' | Jack Colback didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% WHU |
| 3 | 17' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% NEW |
| 4 | 19' | Daryl Janmaat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% WHU |
| 5 | 20' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WHU |
| 6 | 47' | Victor Moses didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +6% NEW |
| 7 | 47' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +9% WHU |
| 8 | 53' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 87% · draw 9% · Newcastle 4%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 82% · draw 12% · Newcastle 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Watford 1–0 Swansea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Watford
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City Sep 12, 2015 · replay 95% for Man City
- Norwich 3–1 Bournemouth Sep 12, 2015 · replay 72% for Norwich
- West Brom 0–0 Southampton Sep 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 2–0 Stoke Sep 12, 2015 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- Everton 3–1 Chelsea Sep 12, 2015 · replay 68% for Everton
- Man United 3–1 Liverpool Sep 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Man United
- Leicester 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Tottenham Sep 13, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham