Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Leicester 2–5 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Leicester 5–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 2 | 1.60 |
 Arsenal | 5 | 3.28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Arsenal about even · −13 Leicester
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 1, 1 ends level, Arsenal win 8.
- 1 LEI 3 ARS 2
- 2 LEI 3 ARS 3
- 3 LEI 0 ARS 7
- 4 LEI 2 ARS 7
- 5 LEI 1 ARS 5
- 6 LEI 0 ARS 4
- 7 LEI 1 ARS 4
- 8 LEI 0 ARS 2
- 9 LEI 0 ARS 2
- 10 LEI 2 ARS 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 8%, 10% end level, Arsenal win 82%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Leicester by 2 | 2.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 4.8% |
| Draw | 9.8% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 14.8% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 17.0% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 50.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 16 | 2 | 1.59 | +0.41 |
 Arsenal | 26 | 5 | 3.28 | +1.72 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 17' | Theo Walcott scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 32' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.73 |
| 56' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 80' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 83' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 88' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 88' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 92' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +21% LEI |
| 2 | 15' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LEI |
| 3 | 17' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% ARS |
| 4 | 17' | Theo Walcott scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +14% ARS |
| 5 | 28' | Santiago Cazorla González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LEI |
| 6 | 32' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 73% chance | +8% ARS |
| 7 | 49' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% LEI |
| 8 | 56' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 4% · draw 8% · Arsenal 88%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 8% · draw 10% · Arsenal 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Arsenal
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton