Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Southampton 3–1 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Swansea 3–1, and the replays lean Southampton’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Swansea, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.3). An own goal helped Southampton.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 3 | 1.41 |
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Southampton lucky · −32 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 6, 2 end level, Swansea win 2.
- 1 SOU 2 SWA 1
- 2 SOU 4 SWA 3
- 3 SOU 4 SWA 2
- 4 SOU 2 SWA 0
- 5 SOU 3 SWA 0
- 6 SOU 5 SWA 1
- 7 SOU 1 SWA 1
- 8 SOU 1 SWA 1
- 9 SOU 1 SWA 3
- 10 SOU 1 SWA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 56%, 23% end level, Swansea win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 14.8% |
| Southampton by 2 | 16.5% |
| Southampton by 1 | 24.7% |
| Draw | 23.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 13.4% |
| Swansea by 2 | 5.3% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 16 | 2 | 1.41 | +0.59 |
 Swansea | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Virgil van Dijk scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 60' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 82' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SOU |
| 2 | 5' | Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SOU |
| 3 | 7' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SWA |
| 4 | 10' | Virgil van Dijk scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +16% SOU |
| 5 | 25' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SOU |
| 6 | 46' | James Ward-Prowse didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% SWA |
| 7 | 53' | Own goal by nan, for SouthamptonOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +11% SOU |
| 8 | 60' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 38% · draw 28% · Swansea 34%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 56% · draw 23% · Swansea 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Swansea
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton