Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Bournemouth 2–1, and the replays lean Stoke’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Bournemouth, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 2 | 1.08 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.05 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Stoke lucky · −42 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 4, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 3.
- 1 STK 1 BOU 0
- 2 STK 1 BOU 0
- 3 STK 2 BOU 0
- 4 STK 3 BOU 0
- 5 STK 1 BOU 1
- 6 STK 0 BOU 0
- 7 STK 0 BOU 0
- 8 STK 0 BOU 2
- 9 STK 0 BOU 1
- 10 STK 1 BOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 43%, 30% end level, Bournemouth win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 6.6% |
| Stoke by 2 | 13.1% |
| Stoke by 1 | 23.6% |
| Draw | 29.7% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 18.5% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 6.2% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 2.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 8 | 2 | 1.08 | +0.92 |
 Bournemouth | 11 | 1 | 1.05 | −0.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 43' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 75' | Dan Gosling scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 82' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +19% STK |
| 2 | 43' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +14% STK |
| 3 | 53' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% BOU |
| 4 | 75' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% STK |
| 5 | 75' | Dan Gosling scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +37% BOU |
| 6 | 80' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% STK |
| 7 | 82' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +36% STK |
| 8 | 86' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 36% · draw 31% · Bournemouth 33%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 43% · draw 30% · Bournemouth 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Bournemouth
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton