Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
West Ham 2–2 Norwich: who deserved to win?
West Ham and Norwich drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 5 of 10, Norwich 3, and 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 2.28 |
 Norwich City | 2 | 1.30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −14 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 5, 2 end level, Norwich win 3.
- 1 WHU 2 NOR 1
- 2 WHU 2 NOR 1
- 3 WHU 3 NOR 1
- 4 WHU 3 NOR 1
- 5 WHU 4 NOR 0
- 6 WHU 3 NOR 3
- 7 WHU 0 NOR 0
- 8 WHU 0 NOR 2
- 9 WHU 1 NOR 2
- 10 WHU 2 NOR 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 54%, 20% end level, Norwich win 26%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 16.0% |
| West Ham by 2 | 16.3% |
| West Ham by 1 | 21.4% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 14.5% |
| Norwich by 2 | 8.0% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 3.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 19 | 2 | 2.28 | −0.28 |
 Norwich | 16 | 2 | 1.30 | +0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Robert Brady scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 32' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 82' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 92' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Robert Brady scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +15% NOR |
| 2 | 32' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +14% WHU |
| 3 | 38' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% NOR |
| 4 | 55' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% NOR |
| 5 | 58' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% NOR |
| 6 | 82' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +44% NOR |
| 7 | 89' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% NOR |
| 8 | 92' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +39% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 61% · draw 21% · Norwich 19%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 54% · draw 20% · Norwich 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · Norwich
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton