Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Tottenham 4–1 Man City: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Man City 4–1, and the replays lean Tottenham’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Man City, 2 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 2.07 |
 Manchester City | 1 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Tottenham lucky · −26 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 6, 2 end level, Man City win 2.
- 1 TOT 1 MCI 0
- 2 TOT 2 MCI 1
- 3 TOT 2 MCI 0
- 4 TOT 3 MCI 1
- 5 TOT 3 MCI 0
- 6 TOT 4 MCI 0
- 7 TOT 2 MCI 2
- 8 TOT 1 MCI 1
- 9 TOT 1 MCI 3
- 10 TOT 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 64%, 19% end level, Man City win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 22.5% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 17.9% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 18.5% |
| Man City by 1 | 10.4% |
| Man City by 2 | 4.7% |
| Man City by 3+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 15 | 4 | 2.07 | +1.93 |
 Man City | 23 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 44' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 44' | Eric Dier scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 49' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 60' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 78' | Erik Lamela scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% TOT |
| 2 | 24' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +22% MCI |
| 3 | 34' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% MCI |
| 4 | 40' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% MCI |
| 5 | 44' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +14% MCI |
| 6 | 44' | The game turned hereEric Dier scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +31% TOT |
| 7 | 49' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +26% TOT |
| 8 | 60' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 82% · draw 12% · Man City 6%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 64% · draw 19% · Man City 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton