Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 28, 2015
West Brom 2–3 Everton: who deserved to win?
Everton beat West Brom 3–2, and the replays lean Everton’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for West Brom, 2 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 0.86 |
 Everton | 3 | 1.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Everton lucky · −34 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 2, 2 end level, Everton win 6.
- 1 WBA 1 EVE 0
- 2 WBA 2 EVE 0
- 3 WBA 1 EVE 1
- 4 WBA 1 EVE 1
- 5 WBA 1 EVE 4
- 6 WBA 0 EVE 2
- 7 WBA 1 EVE 3
- 8 WBA 0 EVE 1
- 9 WBA 0 EVE 1
- 10 WBA 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 22%, 24% end level, Everton win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 2.5% |
| West Brom by 2 | 5.8% |
| West Brom by 1 | 13.9% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Everton by 1 | 23.7% |
| Everton by 2 | 16.5% |
| Everton by 3+ | 13.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 10 | 2 | 0.86 | +1.14 |
 Everton | 12 | 3 | 1.83 | +1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Saido Berahino scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 53' | Craig Dawson scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 54' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 74' | Arouna Koné scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 83' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% WBA |
| 2 | 40' | Saido Berahino scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +23% WBA |
| 3 | 43' | Guangtai Jiang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% WBA |
| 4 | 53' | Craig Dawson scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +9% WBA |
| 5 | 54' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +10% EVE |
| 6 | 56' | Brendan Joel Zibusiso Galloway didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% WBA |
| 7 | 74' | The game turned hereArouna Koné scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +22% EVE |
| 8 | 83' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +21% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 13% · draw 22% · Everton 65%
- Final margin
- Everton by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 22% · draw 24% · Everton 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Everton
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace