Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Chelsea drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 3 of 10, Chelsea 4, and 3 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 2 | 0.88 |
 Chelsea | 2 | 1.29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 3, 3 end level, Chelsea win 4.
- 1 NEW 1 CHE 0
- 2 NEW 3 CHE 2
- 3 NEW 2 CHE 0
- 4 NEW 1 CHE 1
- 5 NEW 0 CHE 0
- 6 NEW 0 CHE 0
- 7 NEW 0 CHE 2
- 8 NEW 0 CHE 1
- 9 NEW 0 CHE 1
- 10 NEW 1 CHE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 29%, 29% end level, Chelsea win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 7.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 18.9% |
| Draw | 28.8% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 23.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 12.3% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 6.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 11 | 2 | 0.88 | +1.12 |
 Chelsea | 17 | 2 | 1.29 | +0.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 59' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 78' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 85' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Daryl Janmaat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% CHE |
| 2 | 41' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +23% NEW |
| 3 | 59' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +9% NEW |
| 4 | 78' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +5% CHE |
| 5 | 81' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% NEW |
| 6 | 82' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +12% NEW |
| 7 | 85' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +47% CHE |
| 8 | 88' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 25% · draw 30% · Chelsea 45%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 29% · draw 29% · Chelsea 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton