Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 27, 2015
Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Watford 1–0, and the replays lean Crystal Palace’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Watford, 2 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 0 | 1.09 |
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Crystal Palace lucky · −31 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 2, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 6.
- 1 WAT 2 CRY 1
- 2 WAT 2 CRY 0
- 3 WAT 1 CRY 1
- 4 WAT 1 CRY 1
- 5 WAT 0 CRY 4
- 6 WAT 0 CRY 3
- 7 WAT 0 CRY 2
- 8 WAT 1 CRY 2
- 9 WAT 1 CRY 2
- 10 WAT 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 20%, 22% end level, Crystal Palace win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Watford by 2 | 5.1% |
| Watford by 1 | 12.7% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 22.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 18.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 17.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 14 | 0 | 1.09 | −1.09 |
 Crystal Palace | 17 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.95 | −0.95 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Brede Hangeland didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 70' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Sebastian Prödl didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +6% CRY |
| 2 | 12' | Brede Hangeland didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% WAT |
| 3 | 21' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% CRY |
| 4 | 29' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% CRY |
| 5 | 59' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% WAT |
| 6 | 70' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% CRY |
| 7 | 71' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% CRY |
| 8 | 93' | José Manuel Jurado Marín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 17% · draw 23% · Crystal Palace 60%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 20% · draw 22% · Crystal Palace 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton