Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Man United 3–0 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Sunderland 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Man United made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 | 2.34 |
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Man United about even · −7 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 9, 1 ends level, Sunderland win 0.
- 1 MUN 2 SUN 1
- 2 MUN 2 SUN 1
- 3 MUN 2 SUN 0
- 4 MUN 2 SUN 0
- 5 MUN 3 SUN 0
- 6 MUN 4 SUN 1
- 7 MUN 5 SUN 1
- 8 MUN 4 SUN 0
- 9 MUN 7 SUN 1
- 10 MUN 1 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 89%, 9% end level, Sunderland win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 48.8% |
| Man United by 2 | 21.9% |
| Man United by 1 | 17.9% |
| Draw | 8.8% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 2.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 0.4% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 12 | 3 | 2.34 | +0.66 |
 Sunderland | 8 | 0 | 0.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 48' | Memphis Depay scored from a shot | 0.67 |
| 66' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 89' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | John O''Shea didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MUN |
| 2 | 16' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SUN |
| 3 | 24' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SUN |
| 4 | 38' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SUN |
| 5 | 45' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +5% MUN |
| 6 | 48' | Memphis Depay scored from a shotFinishing · 67% chance | +10% MUN |
| 7 | 52' | Ola Toivonen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% MUN |
| 8 | 61' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 96% · draw 4% · Sunderland 1%
- Final margin
- Man United by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 89% · draw 9% · Sunderland 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa Sep 26, 2015 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton