Matchday 7 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Liverpool 3–2 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Aston Villa 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 3 | 1.76 |
 Aston Villa | 2 | 1.11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Liverpool about even · −20 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 AVL 0
- 2 LIV 2 AVL 1
- 3 LIV 2 AVL 1
- 4 LIV 2 AVL 0
- 5 LIV 2 AVL 0
- 6 LIV 3 AVL 0
- 7 LIV 5 AVL 1
- 8 LIV 1 AVL 1
- 9 LIV 1 AVL 1
- 10 LIV 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 71%, 18% end level, Aston Villa win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 24.7% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 21.3% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 24.6% |
| Draw | 17.8% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 7.7% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 3.1% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 20 | 3 | 1.76 | +1.24 |
 Aston Villa | 10 | 2 | 1.11 | +0.89 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | James Philip Milner scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 58' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 65' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 66' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 70' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | James Philip Milner scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +20% LIV |
| 2 | 6' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% LIV |
| 3 | 40' | Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LIV |
| 4 | 51' | Nathaniel Edwin Clyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +2% AVL |
| 5 | 58' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +9% LIV |
| 6 | 65' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +4% AVL |
| 7 | 66' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +8% LIV |
| 8 | 70' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +8% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 52% · draw 24% · Aston Villa 24%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 71% · draw 18% · Aston Villa 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–1 Bournemouth Sep 26, 2015 · replay 58% for Stoke
- Southampton 3–1 Swansea Sep 26, 2015 · replay 68% for Southampton
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Man United 3–0 Sunderland Sep 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man United
- Leicester 2–5 Arsenal Sep 26, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Tottenham 4–1 Man City Sep 26, 2015 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–2 Norwich Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Watford 0–1 Crystal Palace Sep 27, 2015 · replay 69% for Crystal Palace
- West Brom 2–3 Everton Sep 28, 2015 · replay 66% for Everton