Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Norwich 0–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Norwich 1–0, but the replays call it even: West Brom win 3 of 10, Norwich 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.78 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 West Brom lucky · −53 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 3, 4 end level, West Brom win 3.
- 1 NOR 2 WBA 1
- 2 NOR 2 WBA 1
- 3 NOR 2 WBA 0
- 4 NOR 0 WBA 0
- 5 NOR 0 WBA 0
- 6 NOR 1 WBA 1
- 7 NOR 0 WBA 0
- 8 NOR 0 WBA 2
- 9 NOR 2 WBA 3
- 10 NOR 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 34%, 37% end level, West Brom win 29%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Norwich by 2 | 7.8% |
| Norwich by 1 | 23.6% |
| Draw | 36.5% |
| West Brom by 1 | 21.7% |
| West Brom by 2 | 6.2% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 16 | 0 | 0.78 | −0.78 |
 West Brom | 7 | 1 | 0.60 | +0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% WBA |
| 2 | 42' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% NOR |
| 3 | 44' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% NOR |
| 4 | 45' | The game turned hereJosé Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +26% WBA |
| 5 | 60' | Wes Hoolahan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WBA |
| 6 | 80' | Ryan Bennett didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% WBA |
| 7 | 82' | Russell Martin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% WBA |
| 8 | 91' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 39% · draw 34% · West Brom 27%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 34% · draw 37% · West Brom 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · West Brom
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham