Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Stoke 0–2 Watford: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Stoke 2–0, and the replays lean Watford’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Stoke, 3 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.45 |
 Watford | 2 | 0.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Watford lucky · −30 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 1, 3 end level, Watford win 6.
- 1 STK 1 WAT 0
- 2 STK 0 WAT 0
- 3 STK 0 WAT 0
- 4 STK 1 WAT 1
- 5 STK 0 WAT 3
- 6 STK 0 WAT 2
- 7 STK 0 WAT 2
- 8 STK 0 WAT 1
- 9 STK 0 WAT 1
- 10 STK 0 WAT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 15%, 32% end level, Watford win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Stoke by 2 | 2.5% |
| Stoke by 1 | 11.8% |
| Draw | 31.6% |
| Watford by 1 | 28.8% |
| Watford by 2 | 16.5% |
| Watford by 3+ | 8.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 11 | 0 | 0.45 | −0.45 |
 Watford | 13 | 2 | 0.98 | +1.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 68' | Almen Abdi scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Ikechi Anya didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% STK |
| 2 | 28' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WAT |
| 3 | 36' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% STK |
| 4 | 36' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% STK |
| 5 | 36' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +8% STK |
| 6 | 42' | The game turned hereTroy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +27% WAT |
| 7 | 68' | Almen Abdi scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% WAT |
| 8 | 73' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 5% · draw 13% · Watford 81%
- Final margin
- Watford by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 15% · draw 32% · Watford 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Watford
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham