Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 25, 2015
Man United 0–0 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man United and Man City drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man United win 3 of 10, Man City 2, and 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 0 | 0.34 |
 Manchester City | 0 | 0.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −1 Man United about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 3, 5 end level, Man City win 2.
- 1 MUN 1 MCI 0
- 2 MUN 1 MCI 0
- 3 MUN 2 MCI 0
- 4 MUN 0 MCI 0
- 5 MUN 0 MCI 0
- 6 MUN 0 MCI 0
- 7 MUN 0 MCI 0
- 8 MUN 0 MCI 0
- 9 MUN 0 MCI 1
- 10 MUN 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 26%, 50% end level, Man City win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Man United by 2 | 4.3% |
| Man United by 1 | 21.0% |
| Draw | 50.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 19.3% |
| Man City by 2 | 3.9% |
| Man City by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 6 | 0 | 0.34 | −0.34 |
 Man City | 6 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MUN |
| 2 | 40' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% MUN |
| 3 | 43' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MUN |
| 4 | 49' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MCI |
| 5 | 50' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MCI |
| 6 | 77' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance | +1% MUN |
| 7 | 83' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% MCI |
| 8 | 87' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 24% · draw 53% · Man City 23%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 26% · draw 50% · Man City 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham