Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Aston Villa 2–1, and the replays lean Swansea’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Aston Villa, 2 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 1 | 1.05 |
 Swansea City | 2 | 1.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Swansea lucky · −34 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 2, 2 end level, Swansea win 6.
- 1 AVL 2 SWA 1
- 2 AVL 2 SWA 0
- 3 AVL 0 SWA 0
- 4 AVL 1 SWA 1
- 5 AVL 0 SWA 4
- 6 AVL 0 SWA 2
- 7 AVL 1 SWA 3
- 8 AVL 1 SWA 2
- 9 AVL 0 SWA 1
- 10 AVL 1 SWA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 22%, 24% end level, Swansea win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 2.2% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 5.5% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 14.4% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 24.8% |
| Swansea by 2 | 16.4% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 9 | 1 | 1.05 | −0.05 |
 Swansea | 10 | 2 | 1.65 | +0.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 61' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 67' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 86' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +10% AVL |
| 2 | 46' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SWA |
| 3 | 61' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% AVL |
| 4 | 61' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +18% AVL |
| 5 | 67' | The game turned hereGylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +34% SWA |
| 6 | 83' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% AVL |
| 7 | 86' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +14% SWA |
| 8 | 89' | Joleon Lescott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 20% · draw 26% · Swansea 54%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 22% · draw 24% · Swansea 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Swansea
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham