Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 25, 2015
Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Bournemouth 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.62 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2.92 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Tottenham about even · −7 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 0, 1 ends level, Tottenham win 9.
- 1 BOU 1 TOT 1
- 2 BOU 0 TOT 6
- 3 BOU 0 TOT 5
- 4 BOU 0 TOT 4
- 5 BOU 0 TOT 4
- 6 BOU 0 TOT 3
- 7 BOU 0 TOT 3
- 8 BOU 1 TOT 3
- 9 BOU 1 TOT 3
- 10 BOU 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 3%, 8% end level, Tottenham win 89%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 0.5% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 2.0% |
| Draw | 8.0% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 14.3% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 19.5% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 55.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 11 | 1 | 0.62 | +0.38 |
 Tottenham | 14 (1 pen) | 5 | 2.92 | +2.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 8' | Harry Kane scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 16' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 28' | Erik Lamela scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 55' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 62' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +20% BOU |
| 2 | 8' | Harry Kane scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% TOT |
| 3 | 12' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% TOT |
| 4 | 16' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +12% TOT |
| 5 | 28' | Erik Lamela scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +9% TOT |
| 6 | 45' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% TOT |
| 7 | 45' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% TOT |
| 8 | 55' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +3% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 0% · draw 2% · Tottenham 97%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 3% · draw 8% · Tottenham 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws