Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Arsenal 2–1 Everton: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Everton 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Arsenal about even · −12 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 8, 1 ends level, Everton win 1.
- 1 ARS 3 EVE 2
- 2 ARS 2 EVE 0
- 3 ARS 4 EVE 2
- 4 ARS 2 EVE 0
- 5 ARS 4 EVE 1
- 6 ARS 4 EVE 0
- 7 ARS 4 EVE 0
- 8 ARS 6 EVE 0
- 9 ARS 2 EVE 2
- 10 ARS 2 EVE 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 83%, 11% end level, Everton win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 42.4% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 22.3% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 11.1% |
| Everton by 1 | 4.5% |
| Everton by 2 | 1.3% |
| Everton by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 20 | 2 | 2.48 | −0.48 |
 Everton | 10 | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 37' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 43' | Ross Barkley scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% EVE |
| 2 | 27' | John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ARS |
| 3 | 35' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +19% ARS |
| 4 | 37' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +8% ARS |
| 5 | 43' | Ross Barkley scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +11% EVE |
| 6 | 73' | Brendan Joel Zibusiso Galloway didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% ARS |
| 7 | 78' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% ARS |
| 8 | 85' | Gerard Deulofeu Lázaro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +8% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 76% · draw 15% · Everton 9%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 83% · draw 11% · Everton 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham