Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 25, 2015
Liverpool 1–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Southampton drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 2 of 10, Southampton 5, and 3 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 0.65 |
 Southampton | 1 | 1.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Liverpool about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 2, 3 end level, Southampton win 5.
- 1 LIV 2 SOU 1
- 2 LIV 2 SOU 0
- 3 LIV 0 SOU 0
- 4 LIV 1 SOU 1
- 5 LIV 1 SOU 1
- 6 LIV 0 SOU 3
- 7 LIV 0 SOU 2
- 8 LIV 1 SOU 2
- 9 LIV 0 SOU 1
- 10 LIV 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 19%, 27% end level, Southampton win 53%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 4.3% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 14.0% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Southampton by 1 | 26.8% |
| Southampton by 2 | 17.0% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 9.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 14 | 1 | 0.65 | +0.35 |
 Southampton | 9 | 1 | 1.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 76' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 85' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.83 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LIV |
| 2 | 19' | Steven Davis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% LIV |
| 3 | 38' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% LIV |
| 4 | 47' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SOU |
| 5 | 62' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SOU |
| 6 | 76' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +38% LIV |
| 7 | 85' | Gastón Exequiel Ramírez Pereyra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LIV |
| 8 | 85' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 83% chance | +8% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 12% · draw 26% · Southampton 62%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 19% · draw 27% · Southampton 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · Southampton
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham