Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Crystal Palace 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 7 of 10, 3 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.33 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Leicester about even · −22 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 7, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 0.
- 1 LEI 2 CRY 1
- 2 LEI 1 CRY 0
- 3 LEI 1 CRY 0
- 4 LEI 2 CRY 0
- 5 LEI 2 CRY 0
- 6 LEI 3 CRY 0
- 7 LEI 4 CRY 0
- 8 LEI 1 CRY 1
- 9 LEI 1 CRY 1
- 10 LEI 0 CRY 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 66%, 25% end level, Crystal Palace win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 14.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 20.1% |
| Leicester by 1 | 31.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 7.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 1.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 12 | 1 | 1.33 | −0.33 |
 Crystal Palace | 10 | 0 | 0.37 | −0.37 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 58' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.81 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% CRY |
| 2 | 9' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +1% CRY |
| 3 | 46' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% LEI |
| 4 | 58' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 81% chance | +6% LEI |
| 5 | 77' | Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEI |
| 6 | 82' | Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% LEI |
| 7 | 85' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
| 8 | 91' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 70% · draw 23% · Crystal Palace 7%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 66% · draw 25% · Crystal Palace 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham