Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
West Ham 2–1 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Chelsea 2–1, and the replays lean West Ham’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Chelsea, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 0.78 |
 Chelsea | 1 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 West Ham lucky · −44 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 3 end level, Chelsea win 3.
- 1 WHU 2 CHE 1
- 2 WHU 1 CHE 0
- 3 WHU 2 CHE 0
- 4 WHU 3 CHE 1
- 5 WHU 1 CHE 1
- 6 WHU 0 CHE 0
- 7 WHU 0 CHE 0
- 8 WHU 0 CHE 2
- 9 WHU 1 CHE 2
- 10 WHU 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 39%, 33% end level, Chelsea win 28%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 3.7% |
| West Ham by 2 | 10.7% |
| West Ham by 1 | 24.9% |
| Draw | 32.6% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 19.5% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 6.6% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 12 | 2 | 0.78 | +1.22 |
 Chelsea | 9 | 1 | 0.76 | +0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 38' | Manuel Lanzini didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 55' | Gary Cahill scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 78' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% WHU |
| 2 | 16' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +23% WHU |
| 3 | 34' | Kurt Happy Zouma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WHU |
| 4 | 38' | Manuel Lanzini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +4% CHE |
| 5 | 55' | Gary Cahill scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +29% CHE |
| 6 | 64' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% WHU |
| 7 | 77' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% WHU |
| 8 | 78' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +38% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 35% · draw 35% · Chelsea 30%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 39% · draw 33% · Chelsea 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle Oct 25, 2015 · replay 45% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham