Matchday 10 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 25, 2015
Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Newcastle 3–0, but the replays lean toward Newcastle: 4 wins in 10 to Sunderland’s 4, 2 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 2.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 3 | 2.08 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 2.90 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Sunderland lucky · −55 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 4, 2 end level, Newcastle win 4.
- 1 SUN 3 NEW 2
- 2 SUN 4 NEW 3
- 3 SUN 4 NEW 2
- 4 SUN 4 NEW 0
- 5 SUN 1 NEW 1
- 6 SUN 1 NEW 1
- 7 SUN 2 NEW 6
- 8 SUN 4 NEW 6
- 9 SUN 1 NEW 3
- 10 SUN 2 NEW 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 35%, 19% end level, Newcastle win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 10.0% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 10.5% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 14.8% |
| Draw | 19.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 16.7% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 12.3% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 16.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 9 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.08 | +0.92 |
 Newcastle | 22 | 0 | 2.90 | −2.90 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Fabricio Coloccini didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 18' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shot | 0.84 |
| 47' | Adam Johnson scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 54' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 64' | Billy Jones scored from a shot | 0.87 |
| 85' | Steven Fletcher scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Fabricio Coloccini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +10% SUN |
| 2 | 18' | Jack Colback didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chanceAleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 84% chance | +25% SUN |
| 3 | 25' | Jack Colback didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% SUN |
| 4 | 26' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 5 | 32' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% SUN |
| 6 | 43' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SUN |
| 7 | 47' | Adam Johnson scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% SUN |
| 8 | 54' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +14% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 43% · draw 26% · Newcastle 31%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.9 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 35% · draw 19% · Newcastle 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–2 Watford Oct 24, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Aston Villa 1–2 Swansea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 66% for Swansea
- Arsenal 2–1 Everton Oct 24, 2015 · replay 88% for Arsenal
- Norwich 0–1 West Brom Oct 24, 2015 · replay 47% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–1 Chelsea Oct 24, 2015 · replay 56% for West Ham
- Leicester 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Leicester
- Man United 0–0 Man City Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- Liverpool 1–1 Southampton Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 1–5 Tottenham Oct 25, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham