Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Newcastle 0–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Stoke drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 4 of 10, Stoke 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 0 | 1.33 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 4, 3 end level, Stoke win 3.
- 1 NEW 1 STK 0
- 2 NEW 1 STK 0
- 3 NEW 3 STK 1
- 4 NEW 4 STK 1
- 5 NEW 1 STK 1
- 6 NEW 0 STK 0
- 7 NEW 0 STK 3
- 8 NEW 1 STK 3
- 9 NEW 2 STK 3
- 10 NEW 1 STK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 38%, 25% end level, Stoke win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 6.5% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 11.1% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% |
| Stoke by 1 | 19.8% |
| Stoke by 2 | 11.1% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 6.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 15 | 0 | 1.33 | −1.33 |
 Stoke | 10 | 0 | 1.34 | −1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 54' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 61' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +9% NEW |
| 2 | 27' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% STK |
| 3 | 51' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% NEW |
| 4 | 54' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +10% STK |
| 5 | 54' | Chancel Mbemba Mangulu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% STK |
| 6 | 61' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +17% NEW |
| 7 | 74' | Glen Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% NEW |
| 8 | 86' | Jamaal Lascelles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 35% · draw 27% · Stoke 38%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 38% · draw 25% · Stoke 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Stoke
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham