Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Watford 2–0 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Watford beat West Ham 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Watford win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 2 | 1.85 |
 West Ham United | 0 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Watford about even · −20 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 7, 2 end level, West Ham win 1.
- 1 WAT 1 WHU 0
- 2 WAT 4 WHU 3
- 3 WAT 1 WHU 0
- 4 WAT 2 WHU 0
- 5 WAT 3 WHU 0
- 6 WAT 3 WHU 0
- 7 WAT 4 WHU 0
- 8 WAT 0 WHU 0
- 9 WAT 1 WHU 1
- 10 WAT 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 71%, 19% end level, West Ham win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 26.3% |
| Watford by 2 | 21.2% |
| Watford by 1 | 23.2% |
| Draw | 19.3% |
| West Ham by 1 | 7.7% |
| West Ham by 2 | 2.1% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 21 | 2 | 1.85 | +0.15 |
 West Ham | 8 | 0 | 0.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.60 |
| 47' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 68' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Nathan Aké didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WHU |
| 2 | 9' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WHU |
| 3 | 9' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WHU |
| 4 | 27' | Miguel Ángel Britos Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WHU |
| 5 | 38' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +11% WAT |
| 6 | 43' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WAT |
| 7 | 47' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +10% WAT |
| 8 | 68' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +5% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 85% · draw 11% · West Ham 4%
- Final margin
- Watford by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 71% · draw 19% · West Ham 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · West Ham
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
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- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
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