Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
West Brom 2–3 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat West Brom 3–2, but the replays call it even: Leicester win 4 of 10, West Brom 4, 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 1.99 |
 Leicester City | 3 | 1.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Leicester lucky · −48 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 4, 2 end level, Leicester win 4.
- 1 WBA 1 LEI 0
- 2 WBA 3 LEI 2
- 3 WBA 3 LEI 1
- 4 WBA 3 LEI 0
- 5 WBA 0 LEI 0
- 6 WBA 2 LEI 2
- 7 WBA 1 LEI 4
- 8 WBA 0 LEI 2
- 9 WBA 0 LEI 1
- 10 WBA 1 LEI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 36%, 23% end level, Leicester win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 7.3% |
| West Brom by 2 | 10.6% |
| West Brom by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 23.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 20.3% |
| Leicester by 2 | 11.4% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 9.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 12 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.99 | +0.01 |
 Leicester | 13 | 3 | 1.68 | +1.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 56' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 63' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 76' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 83' | Rickie Lambert scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +23% WBA |
| 2 | 56' | The game turned hereRiyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +25% LEI |
| 3 | 62' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% WBA |
| 4 | 63' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +23% LEI |
| 5 | 71' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +10% LEI |
| 6 | 76' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +6% LEI |
| 7 | 84' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% LEI |
| 8 | 95' | Rickie Lambert didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +12% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 45% · draw 24% · Leicester 31%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 36% · draw 23% · Leicester 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Leicester
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham