Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Chelsea 3–1, and the replays lean Liverpool’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Chelsea, 4 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Liverpool lucky · −36 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 2, 4 end level, Liverpool win 4.
- 1 CHE 2 LIV 1
- 2 CHE 1 LIV 0
- 3 CHE 1 LIV 1
- 4 CHE 1 LIV 1
- 5 CHE 0 LIV 0
- 6 CHE 0 LIV 0
- 7 CHE 0 LIV 2
- 8 CHE 0 LIV 2
- 9 CHE 0 LIV 1
- 10 CHE 0 LIV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 17%, 37% end level, Liverpool win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 3.1% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 13.6% |
| Draw | 37.1% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 28.5% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 13.0% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 8 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
 Liverpool | 16 | 3 | 0.89 | +2.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 47' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 73' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 82' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +20% CHE |
| 2 | 36' | Lucas Pezzini Leiva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CHE |
| 3 | 47' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +27% LIV |
| 4 | 59' | Robert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LIV |
| 5 | 60' | Ramires Santos do Nascimento didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% LIV |
| 6 | 73' | The game turned herePhilippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +36% LIV |
| 7 | 78' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LIV |
| 8 | 82' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 6% · draw 16% · Liverpool 78%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 17% · draw 37% · Liverpool 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham