Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 1, 2015
Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Bournemouth 2–0, and the replays lean Southampton’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Bournemouth, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 2 | 0.98 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.91 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Southampton lucky · −37 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 5, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 2.
- 1 SOU 1 BOU 0
- 2 SOU 2 BOU 1
- 3 SOU 1 BOU 0
- 4 SOU 3 BOU 1
- 5 SOU 3 BOU 0
- 6 SOU 0 BOU 0
- 7 SOU 1 BOU 1
- 8 SOU 0 BOU 0
- 9 SOU 0 BOU 1
- 10 SOU 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 47%, 31% end level, Bournemouth win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 7.3% |
| Southampton by 2 | 13.4% |
| Southampton by 1 | 26.6% |
| Draw | 31.3% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 16.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 4.3% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 11 | 2 | 0.98 | +1.02 |
 Bournemouth | 16 | 0 | 0.91 | −0.91 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Steven Davis scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 35' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BOU |
| 2 | 14' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% BOU |
| 3 | 25' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BOU |
| 4 | 30' | Steven Davis scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +17% SOU |
| 5 | 35' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +10% SOU |
| 6 | 45' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% SOU |
| 7 | 45' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% SOU |
| 8 | 68' | Charlie Daniels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 68% · draw 20% · Bournemouth 12%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 47% · draw 31% · Bournemouth 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Bournemouth
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
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