Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace and Man United drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Man United 3, and 3 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.88 |
 Manchester United | 0 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −8 Crystal Palace about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 4, 3 end level, Man United win 3.
- 1 CRY 2 MUN 1
- 2 CRY 2 MUN 1
- 3 CRY 1 MUN 0
- 4 CRY 2 MUN 0
- 5 CRY 1 MUN 1
- 6 CRY 1 MUN 1
- 7 CRY 1 MUN 1
- 8 CRY 0 MUN 2
- 9 CRY 0 MUN 1
- 10 CRY 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 41%, 34% end level, Man United win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 4.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 10.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 26.6% |
| Draw | 34.3% |
| Man United by 1 | 18.3% |
| Man United by 2 | 5.3% |
| Man United by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 11 | 0 | 0.88 | −0.88 |
 Man United | 5 | 0 | 0.58 | −0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% MUN |
| 2 | 45' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% CRY |
| 3 | 71' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% MUN |
| 4 | 75' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MUN |
| 5 | 75' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MUN |
| 6 | 88' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% CRY |
| 7 | 90' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% MUN |
| 8 | 91' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 42% · draw 35% · Man United 23%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 41% · draw 34% · Man United 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Man United
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham