Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 2, 2015
Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Aston Villa 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 1.08 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Tottenham about even · −23 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 6, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 TOT 1 AVL 0
- 2 TOT 2 AVL 1
- 3 TOT 2 AVL 1
- 4 TOT 2 AVL 0
- 5 TOT 2 AVL 0
- 6 TOT 3 AVL 0
- 7 TOT 1 AVL 1
- 8 TOT 1 AVL 1
- 9 TOT 0 AVL 0
- 10 TOT 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 65%, 26% end level, Aston Villa win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 13.4% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 20.6% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 30.6% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 8.0% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.3% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 16 | 3 | 1.08 | +1.92 |
 Aston Villa | 13 | 1 | 0.46 | +0.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 45' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 78' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 92' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +18% TOT |
| 2 | 10' | Scott Sinclair didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% TOT |
| 3 | 23' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% AVL |
| 4 | 24' | Danny Rose didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% AVL |
| 5 | 45' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +11% TOT |
| 6 | 78' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +5% AVL |
| 7 | 82' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% TOT |
| 8 | 84' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 84% · draw 12% · Aston Villa 4%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 65% · draw 26% · Aston Villa 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton