Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Man City 2–1 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Norwich 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 | 3.40 |
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Man City about even · −15 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 8, 1 ends level, Norwich win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 NOR 1
- 2 MCI 3 NOR 1
- 3 MCI 4 NOR 2
- 4 MCI 5 NOR 2
- 5 MCI 4 NOR 1
- 6 MCI 4 NOR 0
- 7 MCI 5 NOR 0
- 8 MCI 8 NOR 2
- 9 MCI 3 NOR 3
- 10 MCI 2 NOR 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 80%, 10% end level, Norwich win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 46.3% |
| Man City by 2 | 18.8% |
| Man City by 1 | 14.7% |
| Draw | 10.3% |
| Norwich by 1 | 6.6% |
| Norwich by 2 | 2.3% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 21 (2 pen) | 2 | 3.40 | −1.40 |
 Norwich | 5 | 1 | 1.39 | −0.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 66' | Nicolás Hernán Otamendi scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 82' | Cameron Jerome scored from a shot | 0.94 |
| 88' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 96' | Aleksandar Kolarov didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MCI |
| 2 | 20' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% NOR |
| 3 | 27' | Matt Jarvis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% MCI |
| 4 | 40' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% NOR |
| 5 | 41' | Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% NOR |
| 6 | 66' | Nicolás Hernán Otamendi scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +34% MCI |
| 7 | 87' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +14% NOR |
| 8 | 88' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 84% · draw 12% · Norwich 5%
- Final margin
- Man City by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 80% · draw 10% · Norwich 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Norwich
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham