Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 1, 2015
Everton 6–2 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Sunderland 6–2, and the replays lean Everton’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Sunderland, 2 end level. Everton made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.8. An own goal helped Everton.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 6 | 2.21 |
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Everton lucky · −26 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 7, 2 end level, Sunderland win 1.
- 1 EVE 3 SUN 2
- 2 EVE 1 SUN 0
- 3 EVE 2 SUN 0
- 4 EVE 5 SUN 3
- 5 EVE 3 SUN 0
- 6 EVE 7 SUN 3
- 7 EVE 5 SUN 0
- 8 EVE 2 SUN 2
- 9 EVE 1 SUN 1
- 10 EVE 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 66%, 16% end level, Sunderland win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 27.0% |
| Everton by 2 | 18.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 10.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 5.1% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 15 | 5 | 2.21 | +2.79 |
 Sunderland | 17 | 2 | 1.78 | +0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Gerard Deulofeu Lázaro scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 30' | Arouna Koné scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 48' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 49' | Steven Fletcher scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 59' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.94 |
| 61' | Arouna Koné scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 75' | Arouna Koné scored from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% EVE |
| 2 | 14' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% EVE |
| 3 | 18' | Gerard Deulofeu Lázaro scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +19% EVE |
| 4 | 30' | Arouna Koné scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +12% EVE |
| 5 | 48' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% SUN |
| 6 | 49' | Steven Fletcher scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +25% SUN |
| 7 | 52' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% EVE |
| 8 | 54' | Own goal by nan, for EvertonOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +30% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 72% · draw 16% · Sunderland 12%
- Final margin
- Everton by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.9 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 66% · draw 16% · Sunderland 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Swansea 0–3 Arsenal Oct 31, 2015 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham