Matchday 11 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Swansea 0–3 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Swansea 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.33 |
 Arsenal | 3 | 1.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Arsenal about even · −13 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 0, 2 end level, Arsenal win 8.
- 1 SWA 0 ARS 0
- 2 SWA 0 ARS 0
- 3 SWA 0 ARS 5
- 4 SWA 0 ARS 3
- 5 SWA 0 ARS 3
- 6 SWA 1 ARS 3
- 7 SWA 0 ARS 2
- 8 SWA 1 ARS 2
- 9 SWA 0 ARS 1
- 10 SWA 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 5%, 17% end level, Arsenal win 78%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Swansea by 2 | 0.4% |
| Swansea by 1 | 4.3% |
| Draw | 17.2% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 25.4% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 24.3% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 28.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 7 | 0 | 0.33 | −0.33 |
 Arsenal | 13 | 3 | 1.65 | +1.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 67' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shot | 0.61 |
| 72' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Ignacio Monreal Eraso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% SWA |
| 2 | 26' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ARS |
| 3 | 28' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% SWA |
| 4 | 36' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SWA |
| 5 | 48' | The game turned hereOlivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +29% ARS |
| 6 | 49' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ARS |
| 7 | 52' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ARS |
| 8 | 67' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +5% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 1% · draw 5% · Arsenal 94%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 5% · draw 17% · Arsenal 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Arsenal
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- West Brom 2–3 Leicester Oct 31, 2015 · replay 52% for Leicester
- Newcastle 0–0 Stoke Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Liverpool Oct 31, 2015 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Norwich Oct 31, 2015 · replay 85% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Man United Oct 31, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Watford 2–0 West Ham Oct 31, 2015 · replay 80% for Watford
- Everton 6–2 Sunderland Nov 1, 2015 · replay 74% for Everton
- Southampton 2–0 Bournemouth Nov 1, 2015 · replay 63% for Southampton
- Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa Nov 2, 2015 · replay 77% for Tottenham