Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Newcastle 0–3 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Newcastle 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 10 of 10. Leicester made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.43 |
 Leicester City | 3 | 3.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Leicester about even · −3 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 0, 0 end level, Leicester win 10.
- 1 NEW 0 LEI 8
- 2 NEW 1 LEI 7
- 3 NEW 0 LEI 5
- 4 NEW 0 LEI 5
- 5 NEW 0 LEI 4
- 6 NEW 0 LEI 3
- 7 NEW 1 LEI 4
- 8 NEW 0 LEI 2
- 9 NEW 0 LEI 2
- 10 NEW 1 LEI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 1%, 4% end level, Leicester win 95%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 0.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 1.0% |
| Draw | 3.8% |
| Leicester by 1 | 9.2% |
| Leicester by 2 | 15.8% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 70.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 9 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
 Leicester | 18 | 3 | 3.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 45' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 61' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 79' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 82' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shot | 0.76 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% NEW |
| 2 | 7' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +11% NEW |
| 3 | 20' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LEI |
| 4 | 40' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% NEW |
| 5 | 45' | The game turned hereJamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +28% LEI |
| 6 | 58' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% NEW |
| 7 | 59' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% NEW |
| 8 | 61' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +12% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 0% · draw 1% · Leicester 99%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 1% · draw 4% · Leicester 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Leicester
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland