Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Man City 1–4 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Man City 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 10 of 10. Liverpool made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.9. An own goal helped Liverpool.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 1 | 0.90 |
 Liverpool | 4 | 3.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Liverpool about even · −3 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 0, 0 end level, Liverpool win 10.
- 1 MCI 1 LIV 9
- 2 MCI 0 LIV 7
- 3 MCI 0 LIV 6
- 4 MCI 1 LIV 6
- 5 MCI 0 LIV 4
- 6 MCI 1 LIV 5
- 7 MCI 0 LIV 3
- 8 MCI 0 LIV 3
- 9 MCI 1 LIV 3
- 10 MCI 2 LIV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 2%, 3% end level, Liverpool win 95%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Man City by 2 | 0.2% |
| Man City by 1 | 1.3% |
| Draw | 3.3% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 7.7% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 12.6% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 75.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 12 | 1 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
 Liverpool | 14 | 3 | 3.24 | −0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.54 |
| 31' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.89 |
| 34' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 43' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 59' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 64' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 70' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 80' | Martin Škrtel scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for LiverpoolOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +24% LIV |
| 2 | 18' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MCI |
| 3 | 22' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +8% LIV |
| 4 | 43' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +5% MCI |
| 5 | 58' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LIV |
| 6 | 59' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +2% MCI |
| 7 | 63' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% LIV |
| 8 | 64' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 1% · draw 3% · Liverpool 96%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 2% · draw 3% · Liverpool 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland