Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
West Brom 2–1 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Arsenal 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Arsenal win 6 of 10, West Brom only 1, 3 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped West Brom.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 0.42 |
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 West Brom very lucky · −76 Arsenal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 1, 3 end level, Arsenal win 6.
- 1 WBA 1 ARS 0
- 2 WBA 0 ARS 0
- 3 WBA 0 ARS 0
- 4 WBA 1 ARS 1
- 5 WBA 0 ARS 3
- 6 WBA 0 ARS 2
- 7 WBA 0 ARS 2
- 8 WBA 0 ARS 1
- 9 WBA 0 ARS 1
- 10 WBA 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 11%, 26% end level, Arsenal win 63%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 2.0% |
| West Brom by 1 | 8.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 29.3% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 19.9% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 14.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 4 | 1 | 0.42 | +0.58 |
 Arsenal | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.78 | −0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 34' | James Morrison scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 83' | Santiago Cazorla González didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +25% ARS |
| 2 | 34' | The game turned hereJames Morrison scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +27% WBA |
| 3 | 39' | Own goal by nan, for West BromOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +26% WBA |
| 4 | 47' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% WBA |
| 5 | 52' | Kieran Gibbs didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% WBA |
| 6 | 66' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% WBA |
| 7 | 83' | Santiago Cazorla González didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +35% WBA |
| 8 | 90' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 5% · draw 20% · Arsenal 76%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 11% · draw 26% · Arsenal 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 24% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Arsenal
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland