Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Swansea and Bournemouth drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Swansea win 4 of 10, Bournemouth 4, and 2 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 2 | 2.15 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 1.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Swansea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 4, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 4.
- 1 SWA 1 BOU 0
- 2 SWA 4 BOU 3
- 3 SWA 3 BOU 1
- 4 SWA 4 BOU 1
- 5 SWA 3 BOU 3
- 6 SWA 1 BOU 1
- 7 SWA 1 BOU 4
- 8 SWA 0 BOU 2
- 9 SWA 1 BOU 2
- 10 SWA 2 BOU 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 37%, 21% end level, Bournemouth win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 7.9% |
| Swansea by 2 | 11.4% |
| Swansea by 1 | 17.7% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 19.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 12.3% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 9.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 12 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.15 | −0.15 |
 Bournemouth | 17 | 2 | 1.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Joshua King scored from a shot | 0.55 |
| 25' | Dan Gosling scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 27' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 38' | Jonjo Shelvey scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Joshua King scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +11% BOU |
| 2 | 11' | Wayne Routledge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% BOU |
| 3 | 11' | Éderzito António Macedo Lopes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% BOU |
| 4 | 25' | Dan Gosling scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +15% BOU |
| 5 | 27' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +11% SWA |
| 6 | 38' | Jonjo Shelvey scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% SWA |
| 7 | 85' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% BOU |
| 8 | 87' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 47% · draw 23% · Bournemouth 30%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 37% · draw 21% · Bournemouth 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Bournemouth
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland